A Brief History
On September 29, 2018, the 2018 Australian Football League finals series culminates with the 2018 AFL Grand Final at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The AFL Finals are now down to four teams, all now competing to end the season lifting the trophy. While Collingwood battled to a ten-point win over Greater Western Sydney to book their place in the preliminary finals against Richmond, Melbourne will now face West Coast after an impressive win over Hawthorn to subject the Hawks to a second defeat in these finals.
While Melbourne, Collingwood and West Coast will all be backing themselves to now go all the way, if you listen to many people you could be forgiven for thinking Richmond are already the premiers elect. So, let’s take a closer look at the four teams left in these AFL Finals, and ask whether the bookmakers have got things right.
Digging Deeper
Richmond
A virtual ever-present in the AFL Finals for the past six years, finishing in the top eight five of those seasons, Richmond’s previous experience is only one of a number of reasons the club are a 1.95 betting favourite with the latest AFL odds found by Oddschecker. The main reason so many are backing Damien Hardwick’s men to add the premiership to their minor premiership has been their form this season. Suffering only four losses all year, the Tigers kicked off their finals campaign with a comfortable win over Hawthorn.
Melbourne
The real surprise package this season has undoubtedly been the Melbourne Demons. After finishing fifth in the AFL ladder, the club secured their place in the finals for the first time since 2006, with Simon Goodwin’s men now set to compete in their first preliminary final since 2000. The job done by Goodwin and his squad this season has been quite remarkable, and the momentum they’re currently enjoying should not be overlooked when considering whether the Demons could well upset the odds even further and go all the way this year.
Having booked their place in the preliminary finals against West Coast with a 16.8 (104) to 10.11 (71) victory over a strong Hawthorn side, Melbourne will take on the Eagles full of confidence. While their opponents are a very strong side themselves, the Demons showed in their round 22 win over West Coast that they know they have what it takes to beat them again. This game is an entirely different proposition, however, and Melbourne won’t be able to underestimate the Eagles. Anything less than full focus and their return to the finals will end here.
West Coast
The Eagles were the only team that really looked like challenging Richmond at the top of the AFL ladder for large parts of the season, and it didn’t come as a huge shock when they beat Collingwood to open their account in these finals. Having been in and around the title mix for much of the past decade without success, the Eagles underwent some significant changes heading into this season. While some felt there was a chance this period of transition could see West Coast maybe miss out on a top-eight finish this year, the Eagles have looked strong from start to finish, and there are more than a few punters backing the club to end their 12-year wait to win a grand final.
One of West Coast’s most important weapons heading into their preliminary final against Melbourne will be Josh Kennedy, who is fit again after a shin injury that kept him out of action for seven weeks of the season. The prolific forward only managed two goals in his first game back from injury, but that won’t have done much to ease the nerves of the Melbourne backline. Kennedy has been one of the AFL’s best frontmen for a number of years now, but the 31-year old is yet to lift any silverware with the Eagles and he knows time may well be running out. If West Coast are going to have any chance of making it past Melbourne and then the grand final, their free-scoring forward is going to have a big role to play.
Collingwood
After losing in their opening finals game against West Coast, Collingwood took their second chance against Greater Western Sydney in the semi-finals. While it may not have been pretty, the 10-point win proved the ‘Pies have the ability to grind out a result when they’re not performing at their very best. They will certainly need to be at their best if they’re going to beat Richmond for a place in the grand final, in a game that sees two rivals battle it out in one of the most eagerly-anticipated preliminary finals for a while. Melbourne will come to a standstill as the city’s two most iconic clubs do battle, with the Magpies under no illusions they’ll be heading into the game as the heavy underdogs.
Despite finishing third in the ladder, whenever Collingwood came up against the Tigers they came out second best; losing their two games against Richmond without being able to put up much of a fight. The pressure in the finals is unique, though, and it remains to be seen whether those two results will have much of an impact when the two do battle at the MCG with a place in the grand final awaiting the winner. In their favor is Jordan de Goey, a man who has been one of the biggest shocks of the season. Heading into the campaign with a previous best goal tally of 16, the 19-year old currently finds himself with 41 goals to his name this year. If the youngster can maintain his form against Richmond, the Magpies may well have a chance of upsetting the odds.
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Historical Evidence
For more information, please see…
Atkinson, Graeme. The complete book of AFL finals. The Five Mile Press, 2002.
The featured image in this article, a picture taken by Oscar during the Australian national anthem at the 2018 AFL elimination final between the Melbourne Demons and Geelong Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Victoria, Australia on 7 September 2018, was published by the copyright holder of this work under the following license: this file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
